A Breaking Point for College Football

We're in the End Game now.

Be careful what you wish for is a phrase that has been applied many times in many eras of human existence. In fact, I am sure it was probably one of the first sentiments uttered as humans began to form the written and spoken word. One might say, it’s a tale as old as time, song as old as rhyme. (Y’all allow me my indulgences, I’m writing this at 4:30 AM on a Saturday before work).

However you want to phrase it, be careful what you wish for as a mantra has specifically made its way into college football, and I am not sure how we will be able to get things back in order. 

Now before I get into this I want to state clearly that I am all for players being able to capitalize on their brands like any other student would. It was not fair that a communications major with a great YouTube presence could monetize their talent, while a great wide receiver bringing tangible cache and cash flow into the university could not do the same. I think to myself, what kind of money could Odicci Alexander and some of the rest of the stars of the 2021 JMU Women’s College World Series team have made given opportunities and one more year of eligibility. A scholarship, while life changing, is not 6 figure income, which is even a penance amongst some of the most successful social media influencers. And in sports like softball and others, full scholarships are not the norm at all.

So, I am all for NIL, player movement, and young adults maximizing their opportunities as they learn like any other students do about real life. The difference between that student that’s a YouTube influencer and a lineman or linebacker though, is that apart from perhaps a small production team, it is a solo venture. Football, and many other sports, are team exercises. Therefore, when someone leaves, it has a ripple effect. Unfiltered movement in college football is not sustainable, and I believe we have seen how even a little too much fluidity in another popular college sport, has had it wane slightly in appeal. 

The one and done rule was a thing before NIL and was specifically made for men’s college basketball. I won’t get into the particulars as the rule is pretty self-explanatory, but it opened the door for exceptional young talents to showcase their skills for high profile universities for a year before jumping to the NBA. Combine this with the transfer portal and now NIL, a 15-man college basketball roster is hard to sustain. Of course, big names still matter, and March Madness will never go away, but we are not seeing TEAMS the same way we did in times before i was born like Georgetown and the Big East of the 80s, Duke, UNLV of the 90s, UNC, Illinois, Syracuse in the 2000s…you get the point. 

I may sound like an old man, but there is something to getting to know and grow with players over 2-3 years as they grow with a team. I know for me college basketball has suffered in my lexicon of sports I watch because I think lack of continuity has made some of the on court product suffer, and making a connection with players seems like an investment with potential red flags. Basketball and football are very different sports with different dynamics and even rules for going pro, but I see some parallels and potential trouble ahead. 

Earlier this week, courts, which seem to be as much a part of college sports as the athletes themselves, made their presence known once again. A Judge in Ohio said that players can’t be limited by 1 time transfer rules, and therefore can’t be punished if they decide to transfer more than once. I get it. Given the height of the pandemic isn’t even a full 4 year cycle removed, and extenuating circumstances happen, a player may need to move once, or twice even to find their right fit. In the real world, it may take you a couple times to gain enough experience for the job you think fits you, or to find the right job at all. Sometimes companies are not what they advertise. I’ll bring this analogy up later. 

The NCAA did itself no favors here by denying the transfer exceptions for many reasonable examples at the beginning of the year. Under new leadership they were trying to bring back control of what so many were calling the “wild wild west” with the portal and NIL. What ended up happening was just bad press and they looked like out of touch idiots, which is actually what the NCAA has been doing since its inception. However, because of this, and with this court ruling and NIL, and the transfer portal as it currently is constructed, we have officially reached a critical mass and an unsustainable model for “amateur” athletics in a sport like college football that makes way too much money to be considered amateur, even at the levels outside of “power” schools for some. 

I bring up that continuity again. It is easy to see how a core/class of 5-7 basketball players year over year can build relationships and chemistry amongst one another. The results are obvious on the court and relationships with students and alumni are tangible. What about keeping together 6-8 offensive/defensive linemen or a quarterback with a wide receiver room? That stuff matters, and if we are going to allow young adults to completely rip the thinly veiled facade of “student” athletes off the mask of college football in particular, on field product will suffer, as it has in basketball. It is not all their fault, as the adultier adults have failed to provide them with something sustainable, for far too long. This is just the end result. 

I am not one to project doom and gloom. I leave that to 96 percent of news that is reported across all subject matter and outlets. No really, look it up. It’s all bad news. So much bad news, it is no wonder we have so much depression and…nope. Let me stop. This is about college athletics. 

But this is seriously at a breaking point here where we are about to lose the very thing that makes people fans, and frankly continues to have people contribute their hard earned money back to athletics of their alma maters. If alumni feel like there’s no point to donating because there is no continuity on the field, they’ll pull their support. It’ll happen with smaller schools at first, but even institutions with larger donor bases like Baylor or Virginia Tech may look at what’s happening and have their alumni say, well what are we even trying for if we’re gonna get a player for 1-2 years before they leave for the SEC. In a game that has always been transactional, the quick transactions are going to have dire consequences. 

I’ll then say this, the on field product will suffer as well. Recruiting will become paramount because you want to make sure you’re getting guys you believe want to develop with you as a coach and love the school they want to spend at least 3 years at. Not everyone goes to college as an athlete to make a ton of money or hope to go pro. That much is still true. But inevitably with so much upheaval, quality on the field will not be as good, and sadly I think it makes the sport less safe. Basketball is unique in that getting together 5 talented people can make beautiful music together on a court even with minimal prior knowledge. But think of how much better it would be with 2-3 years together. I keep bringing up the offensive line, but no matter how talented you are, offensive linemen have to know one another to be successful. Their continuity drives everything on offense. And frankly, it helps keep themselves and other players healthy too. Lack of continuity and knowledge of one's team in a violent game like football is going to result potentially in even more injuries. Again, I don’t bring this up to be doom and gloom, I just see the writing on the wall. 

Eventually, what happens to support? Professional sports like the NFL and NBA are unique in where you can be a fan of a team of course, but rooting for individual players also happens. Gambling and fantasy sports, for better or worse, have also made this possible. College sports are unique though. We root for our teams because of something more primal than geography, though sometimes it is just that. Whether you went to a school, or your family has always been fans of that team, that’s just different than the pros. If an NFL free agent goes to another team, you wish him well perhaps. If a college player transfers to your rival, that ain’t happening. Now what happens if there’s so much transferring that rosters are unrecognizable and product for most of the sport goes down? Even for the most hardcore and supportive of fans, we have a breaking point. 

I’ll leave you with this, because I feel like I could go on forever as I am prone to do so. I don’t know how we fix this outside of coaches doing a damn good job of knowing who they are recruiting. Tangible change doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. You have to recruit, that’s always been at the core of this sport. You have to get players that while they have potential professional aspirations, love of the program and getting an education are also at the core of their decision.

Could we see donors switch their support to other college athletes whom they think will remain with the schools for longer? Apart from softball being my second favorite NCAA sport, I know I love to support JMU’s team because there is still that growth as a team and getting to know players. I want the sport to grow and succeed, and I also see a value in supporting players on the team because I genuinely believe in them, and that they’ll be with the school for the majority of their college careers. But I know not everyone who is a hardcore football fan is also going to support other athletic ventures at the school. Football is still king in almost all athletic departments save a few basketball powerhouses. 

So, I don’t know who will make the next move. Coaches have always been able to move around more or less freely, and now players can do so as well in college football. I don’t believe it to be sustainable, even at the highest levels. At what point does a player with 2-3 transfers get the same side eye that a potential applicant for a job receives that has a litany of short stints on their resume with no viable explanation? I guess I’ll write more on a lot of this in due time, but we can’t keep going the way we are now because inevitably the on the field product will suffer and fan support will waver, even if it’s a little. 

We’re in the end game now.